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Joe Biden's Polling Advantage Is Slipping Away

According to the RCP polling averages, Joe Biden still maintains a five point polling lead over incumbent President Donald Trump. However, since this time last year, Joe Biden's polling advantage is slowly crumbling and we're still six months away from the election.

Biden, before the primary even started, was seen by many within the Democratic Party to be the best bet to defeat Donald Trump and continue the Obama legacy, once again going with the same strategy that lost them the election in 2016.

A few polls were conducted over the last couple of years, asking people whether they would vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump and the results were very favourable for Biden, routinely coming out fourteen points ahead, with a high of eighteen points ahead of Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

As we arrived at the tailend of 2019, Biden's numbers were slightly worse. A Rasmussen poll conducted in September suggested that Donald Trump was actually four points ahead (47-43) while a ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted in October stated that Biden was actually seventeen points ahead. While a few polls suggested that Trump had a small lead of a couple of points, Biden maintained an average lead.

Biden had leads of plus ten points in the vast majority of the polls. Real Clear Politics started recording the averages of the polling matchups in October 2019, at which point Biden reached a near twelve point average lead over Donald Trump. This lead decreased to an average of ten points in December 2019, and reached a lowly 4 point average lead in late January 2020.

In February Biden still maintained a four to five point lead over Donald Trump. After embarrassing losses in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary, Biden's polling lead against Trump diminished until his comeback win in South Carolina. After the South Carolina Primary Biden held a six to seven point advantage over Donald Trump.

In the following weeks, candidates like Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg surprisingly dropped out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden, a move which was rumored to have been orchestrated by former President Obama behind the scenes.

In March, Biden's polling lead grew slightly to a seven to eight point average, but has since declined.

With Biden now the Democratic nominee, he faces attacks from the Trump machine. Biden's lead now sits at an average of five points, a far cry from the double digit leads he was enjoying last year. Betting odds listed on the RCP website also give Trump a 50% chance of being reelected, while Biden trails with a 44% chance.

We still have over six months until the 2020 election and there haven't been any debates in which Biden will inevitably forget what he was saying and lose his train of thought, which could very well lead to a Trump victory in November.

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