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Does Donald Trump Think He's Winning?



A little while back we wrote about Joe Biden's gradual decline in the polls against current President Donald Trump, ranging back from before the Democratic Primary even took place, during the primary, and now that Biden has become the Democratic nominee.

Biden enjoyed leads of eighteen points in a large number of polling matchups leading up to the Democratic Primary, and his polling advantage began to slowly erode as the primary went on, with Trump slightly ahead in some polls. Losses in the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada contests cut into Biden's lead against Trump, as did his constant gaffes on the debate stage and in interviews, as well as the fact that he is still dealing with sexual assault allegations from Tara Reade, which haven't been concluded or even reported on in months.

However, following Trump's abysmal handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the police killing of George Floyd and many other black Americans since then, the subsequent protests and further police brutality, Trump's strongman approach will almost certainly cost him the 2020 election. 

Because of these recent events Biden has waltzed into a large polling lead once again, having leads of fourteen and twelve points in recent NY Times/Siena and Harvard-Harris polls respectively. A poll from Fox News of all places, reports that Biden is currently leading by 12 points. 

Betting odds for the november election have also flipped completely in favour of Biden, now having a 59.1% chance of winning the presidency, compared to when we last wrote about this in late april, Trump had a 50% chance of winning compared to Biden's 44%. Biden's average lead has also increased from a four to nine points, according to the RCP polling average. 

Donald Trump however, seems to either be unaware of his current polling predicament or simply thinks that an unsympathetic tough on crime, strict law and order persona will give him another four years, which isn't the case right now at least. Which begs the question, does Donald Trump actually think he's winning?

Has he even looked at the polls, or does he even believe them? He could obviously think that he still has time to turn this around and win but based on current trends he is slipping further and further away from another term as president, while all Joe Biden has to do is sit idly by while Trump collapses.

Of course if anyone were able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it would be the Democratic Party, but Donald Trump is making it extremely easy for them to oust him in November. 
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